New Delhi [India], December 4 (ANI): Swadeshi Jagran Manch expressed concern over the fast declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which means the number of babies an average woman aged 15-49 bears over her lifetime, and its likely impact on the future growth of population entering, which is getting into negative zone; and its impact on existence of our society.
Swadeshi Jagran Manch’s National Co-Convenor, Ashwani Mahajan said that Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat has also expressed his concern over falling total fertility rates in India below 2.0. It’s notable that, Lancet in his latest publication reported that India’s TFR has come down to 1.91 by the year 2021.
Further Lancet’s study has projected that by the year 2050, TFR may fall to 1.29. It’s notable that in the year 1950, the fertility rate was 6.18 children per woman, he added.
A TFR of 2.1 is considered ‘replacement-level fertility’. This means that a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives. It ensures that each generation replaces itself. The nation has to ensure that the population doesn’t really fall.
Mahajan said, “We need to take this warning seriously, as Sarsangh Chalak Ji has said that a decline in TFR, to less than the replacement rate, means that with this the societies cease to exist, without anyone destroying them. Therefore, society is faced with the danger of extinction in the long run, which is a cause of major worry, and has been said that TFR shouldn’t in any case fall below 2.1.”
Globally, also the trend is towards generally declining TFR. We see that the developed countries with constantly declining and low TFR have been facing a contraction in their population. TFR has fallen much below the replacement level of 2.1 in South Korea, Japan, Germany etc., threatening their very existence. Bharat must learn from these countries and take remedial measures to reverse the declining trend, he added.
Due to the decreasing infant mortality rate, the youth population in the country started increasing continuously, a phenomenon known as ‘demographic dividend’. If we take the data from 2001, the population of youth (age group of 15 to 34 years) in the country was 33.80 per cent of the total population, which increased to 34.85 per cent in 2011.
It is currently more than 35.3 per cent of the total population. When one looks at absolute numbers, it becomes clear that today, India has the largest number of youth in comparison to any other country. This segment of the population can contribute more to development.
He said that with changing times, economists have started realising that the rising population is no longer a burden, and with fast-advancing health services, the death rate, especially the infant mortality rate has come down drastically, improving chances for our children to survive longer, adding further to demographic dividend and contribute to the development of the nation.
“However, our efforts towards improving the chances of survival of our children would not suffice if the fertility rate falls to less than the replacement rate. Even the population Policy of India of the year 2000 clearly stated, ‘By adopting cross-sectoral working strategies, the medium-term goal is to raise the TFR to replacement level (TFR of 2.1) by 2010’. It has further stated its long-term goal, ‘to stabilize the population by 2045 at a level that satisfies the demands of societal development, environmental preservation, and sustainable economic growth'”, he said.
Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, in its National Council meeting held in Lucknow, in June 2024 had passed a resolution also in this regard, expressing concerns over these trends in TFR. The Manch calls upon the people of Bharat in general and opinion makers, policy analysts and policymakers, in particular, to delve upon this issue of declining TFR to less than replacement level, endangering the existence of the society in the long run.
“We need to come clear that today the problem faced by the Indian economy is to maintain its population so that our development efforts don’t face any hurdle. We must understand that if we fail to rise to the occasion, it may cause a dangerous imbalance in the population in the form of raising the dependency burden, slowing down our growth,” Mahajan added. (ANI)
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